Caculate future growth in absolute figures?

[elderflower]

Hi All,

I received these figures and have been trying to obtain the same value as been presented.
Would greatly be grateful if someone show the method.
Here goes:

Year 2004:405,354
Year 2008: 435,715
CAGR: 1.45%
Projected In Year 2015: 490,984

I managed to get the CAGR value % but unable to get the project year 2015 number. Have tried manuipulating the CAGR formula to obtain, instead the value is enormous. Thus, now clueless.

Thanks for your help and reply.

 

[Deleted member 4993]

Hi All,

I received these figures and have been trying to obtain the same value as been presented.
Would greatly be grateful if someone show the method.
Here goes:

Year 2004:405,354
Year 2008: 435,715
CAGR: 1.45%
Projected In Year 2015: 490,984

I managed to get the CAGR value % but unable to get the project year 2015 number. Have tried manuipulating the CAGR formula to obtain, instead the value is enormous. Thus, now clueless.

Thanks for your help and reply.

How did you calculate CAGR (by using what formula)?

Please show your attempts to calculate FV(which resulted in huge numbers) - so that we know where to begin.

 

[tkhunny]

Please define "CAGR". Don't write problesm without proper defintions.

Depending on exactly what it is, it seems you should be able to get close without too much trouble.

Using 1.45% Annual Growth

\(\displaystyle 435715 \cdot 1.0145^{7}\;=\;481911\)

Using a calculated value:

\(\displaystyle a\;=\;\frac{435715}{405354}\;=\;1.0749\)

\(\displaystyle b\;=\;a^{0.25}\;=\;1.01822\)

\(\displaystyle 435715 \cdot 1.01822^{7} = 494418\)

Using a simple Exponential Least-Squares Model

\(\displaystyle 7.8 \cdot 10^{-11} \cdot e^{0.018 \cdot 2015}\;=\;440647\)

I'm not quite finding 490984, but I am in the neighborhood.

 

[elderflower]

Hi All,

Apologies for using abbrev. CAGR refers to compound annual growth rate.

The formula I used is CAGR= (end value/beginning value) power of 1/5 -1, which I managed to obtain 1.45%. When i tried to manipulate the formula leaving end value as unknown and changed the power of 1/5 to 1/7 and using 1.45% to calculate, I got astronomical value.

Thanks for everyone's effort trying to solve.

 

[Deleted member 4993]

Hi All,

Apologies for using abbrev. CAGR refers to compound annual growth rate.

The formula I used is CAGR= (end value/beginning value) power of 1/5 -1, which I managed to obtain 1.45%. When i tried to manipulate the formula leaving end value as unknown and changed the power of 1/5 to 1/7 and using 1.45% to calculate, I got astronomical value.

Thanks for everyone's effort trying to solve.

Why do you count five years - going from 2004 to 2008. It should be 4.

 

[Denis]

The formula I used is CAGR= (end value/beginning value) power of 1/5 -1, which I managed to obtain 1.45%. When i tried to manipulate the formula leaving end value as unknown and changed the power of 1/5 to 1/7 and using 1.45% to calculate, I got astronomical value.

Not sure what you're trying/doing...

Year 2004:405,354
Year 2008: 435,715
CAGR: 1.45%
Projected In Year 2015: 490,984

If you start with 405,354 then the value after n years is 405354(1.0145)^n ; it's that simple!

As Mr Khan indicated, there's a problem with the number of years you're using:
2004-2008 = 4 ; you're using 5
2004-2015 = 11; you're using 13