NFL Office Pool Probability of Winning

[Tommy10]

I'd like to know the formula if you answer my question. Thank you. A participant in our office football pool has won three times in the first eight weeks of the season (never happened before). Furthermore, he has won three times in a six week pd., this seems to me to be astronomical luck or something else....

It's head-to-head pool, ea. week all 60 participants pick the NFL games that week against the spread. Assuming that the spread makes the games outcome a 50/50 chance (like a coin flip), this seems ridiculously "lucky" to me (3 wins in six weeks). We have never had more than two winners in a season in the prior ten years we have played the pool; although the number of participants wasn't always sixty. We went to an electronic format a few yrs. ago and I'm somewhat suspicious that it may have been compromised in some way. There are always intangibles, injuries, etc. but most that participate have good football sense - so it's pretty even. Also, his record over the first eight games of the season was 76 & 45 (63 %), better than Vegas and he was six ahead of the guy in second place (no other participants were more than two spots removed from the guy below them). Would be interested in the probability percentage of what he has accomplished (especially the three wins in six weeks) and the formula in which it was made. Thanks for your help. Tom

 

[Ishuda]

Every football pool I've been in had the final sheet posted BEFORE any games were started. Sure would stop speculation about a fix.

 

[HallsofIvy]

I see no reason here to think that the bets were not taken before the games were played! But certainly, a person who is really "into" football might well know the teams better than even those who set the odds. Those are typically done well before the games and things may have changed in the interim. The only time any "cheating" would occur is if the person is being given "inside information". That is, learning about difficulties such as illness or injury to a critical player before it was made public. I would find it difficult to believe a person who did not spend all his time worming information out of team workers would have access to such information from many different teams. On the other hand, a person who reads newspapers sports sections religiously and listens to radio sports programs would have "public" information that others had not noticed. You understand, I hope, that "sports bets" are NOT 100% chance?