Texas Hold´em

[Laamanen7]

Texas Hold´em

Hey. I just played texas Hold´em with my friends, and I was the one who shuffled and dealt the cards. About 1,25 hours in, they complained that I had dealt the cards in a wrong order for the duration of the whole game, and that it will have an effect to the probability of the winner. And here comes the problem: I argued, that the probability to win is the same for everyone, no matter the order in which the cards are dealt to the table, or even if we switch the order of dealing every round. I believe this because: 1. all the cards are unknown before they are dealt, and 2. even if we knew the cards before dealing, they will all get randomized again when shuffled. I know that if we take a strictly philosophical and deterministic attitude, everything affects everything, but if this is true then even the choice of music would somehow effect the probability of the winner. So just to summarize: I think that me dealing cards "the wrong way" is simply a mistake of the etiquette, while they think that it will change the probability of them winning.
So can someone provide any mathematical proof that I am right (or wrong, if it is so)?

 

[HallsofIvy]

Hey. I just played texas Hold´em with my friends, and I was the one who shuffled and dealt the cards. About 1,25 hours in, they complained that I had dealt the cards in a wrong order for the duration of the whole game, and that it will have an effect to the probability of the winner. And here comes the problem: I argued, that the probability to win is the same for everyone, no matter the order in which the cards are dealt to the table, or even if we switch the order of dealing every round. I believe this because: 1. all the cards are unknown before they are dealt, and 2. even if we knew the cards before dealing, they will all get randomized again when shuffled. I know that if we take a strictly philosophical and deterministic attitude, everything affects everything, but if this is true then even the choice of music would somehow effect the probability of the winner. So just to summarize: I think that me dealing cards "the wrong way" is simply a mistake of the etiquette, while they think that it will change the probability of them winning.
So can someone provide any mathematical proof that I am right (or wrong, if it is so)?

The "a-priori" probability of a person winning is the same- but who actually wins will change!

 

[Ishuda]

Hey. I just played texas Hold´em with my friends, and I was the one who shuffled and dealt the cards. About 1,25 hours in, they complained that I had dealt the cards in a wrong order for the duration of the whole game, and that it will have an effect to the probability of the winner. And here comes the problem: I argued, that the probability to win is the same for everyone, no matter the order in which the cards are dealt to the table, or even if we switch the order of dealing every round. I believe this because: 1. all the cards are unknown before they are dealt, and 2. even if we knew the cards before dealing, they will all get randomized again when shuffled. I know that if we take a strictly philosophical and deterministic attitude, everything affects everything, but if this is true then even the choice of music would somehow effect the probability of the winner. So just to summarize: I think that me dealing cards "the wrong way" is simply a mistake of the etiquette, while they think that it will change the probability of them winning.
So can someone provide any mathematical proof that I am right (or wrong, if it is so)?

Also, Texas Hold'em is not just a matter of probability. To paraphrase one well known player, he would play an ordinary person without knowing what his cards were and feel very comfortable about winning over a long evening of playing. Another aspect is position which plays a large part in the game; knowing that someone doesn't (apparently) care to bet or bet a 'small' amount or just call or ... with the cards they have gives the later player a slight edge. Changing the deal order each hand generally does not give all players equal 'position opportunity'. Still another aspect is bluffing which can, in part, be tied into position on a particular hand. etc. etc. etc.

 

[Laamanen7]

Thanks for quick answers. First of all: I have played poker quite a lot, so I know what bluffing is. But my issue was strictly about probabilities, so skill of a player does not matter here. Second: The "a priori change is same, but who actually wins will change". Well this might be true for a single dealing, but in the long run the chances of player X, Y or Z getting "better cards", is exactly the same, no matter the order in which the cards are dealt. Provided that the deck is shuffled thoroughly (I shuffled well about 3-4 times (rifle shuffle) + cut 4-5 times per shuffle). In fact, wouldnt the randomness of the cards actually increase even more, if the order in which the cards are dealt would also change randomly?
So if you lose you can always say "you dealt the cards wrong!", but if I had dealt them exactly the right way (proper poker-etiquette way), the chances of you getting a good hand would still be the same, in any situation througout the game. Thank you for replies, and please correct me if I´m wrong in any way.

 

[Laamanen7]

So my point is that the issue of dealing cards in "the wrong order", is basically an issue of not respecting/remembering/knowing the poker-etiquette/"right way", and not at all about the probabilities of winner changing

 

[Ishuda]

If you have something like an ante and no betting, just deal the cards then you are correct, it would not matter how you deal the cards (assuming the have been well shuffled, are dealt in a random manner, etc.). However, once you allow decisions to be made by players according to the cards they hold, it no longer becomes a game of strict probability.

 

[Deleted member 4993]

So my point is that the issue of dealing cards in "the wrong order", is basically an issue of not respecting/remembering/knowing the poker-etiquette/"right way", and not at all about the probabilities of winner changing

If you had dealt the card face-up then of course "winning" is strict probability.

Suppose you are a type of player who is "irrational" and like to bet high with doubleton-deuce. Then by changing the cards you may miss the particular cards in your hand - and thus will affect your winning.

As soon as the holding becomes unknown - probability becomes only one of the elements of "winning".